NCBA Group Plc said Kenya’s economy is expected to expand by 4.8 per cent in 2026, revising down from its earlier 5.1 per cent projection.
At the NCBA Economic Forum 2026, Managing Director and CEO John Gachora warned that “our capacity to absorb successive shocks is not limitless” despite the economy’s resilience.
Gachora added that growth in 2027 is likely to stay between 4.0 and 5.0 per cent because of global political tensions, volatile commodity prices, unpredictable weather and the upcoming general elections.
National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi noted that average growth between 2022 and 2025 was 5 per cent, inflation was 7.3 per cent in October 2026, the shilling traded around KSh129.9 per US dollar and foreign-exchange reserves rose to USD 14.9 billion, covering about 6.1 months of imports.
Mbadi said “We project economic growth of 5.1 per cent in 2027, with inflation remaining within target and the shilling maintaining stability” and stressed that sustaining these gains will need continued fiscal discipline, better revenue mobilisation and prudent public-expenditure management.
Dr David Ndii highlighted improvements in milk, sugar, coffee and vehicle registrations and said Kenya is tracking an investment pipeline of about USD 45.7 billion across infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture and ICT, with a proposed National Infrastructure Fund to mobilise USD 10 billion and a USD 24 billion Lamu Port and oil complex project.
Industry leaders warned that geopolitical tensions, commodity-price swings, adverse weather and tighter global financial conditions will continue to test resilience in 2027, calling for sound policies and stronger public-private collaboration.
