Kenya’s Economy Is On The Brink Of Recession

The Jubilee administration is full of PR tactics. Kenya was recently crowned the biggest economy in the Eastern Africa region according to data by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to paint the economy as doing great, this is far from the truth, Kenya’s economy is pedaling furiously backwards.

The ratio of Kenya’s debt to the gross domestic product (GDP) shot up from 59.1 pc in 2017/18 to 62.3 pc in 2018/19, and predictions from experts expect it to rise even more dangerous levels.

For the last 6 years, Kenya has maintained an average GDP growth of 5.7 pc but most Kenyans would agree these numbers mean nothing and they have not felt that growth.

The bulk of the money injected from investments hardly finds their way into the economy, instead it is paid out to foreign contractors and companies. Employment in ‘East Africa’s biggest economy’ is dwindling. Hundreds of thousands of college graduates have in the last five years joined an ever expanding jobless corner while well-connected individuals known as ‘tenderpreneurs’ take home all the loot.

Kenya’s real estate market has left developers and investors with losses that are worth billions of shillings as the investments went on a sharp decline in the last five years.

Jeff Gables, the head of Absa Economic Research, notes that Kenya is quite ‘special’, Normally the relationship between Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and GDP growth is normally inverse, meaning the growth in the economy always leads to a reduction in bad loans. Kenya on the other hand is struggling with bad loans with a total of these loans increasing from a low of 4.7 pc in December 2012 to current levels of 12 pc.

Something is a miss. Kenya’s economy is on a major decline and better to say it as it is and start dealing with it. The economy is in the doldrums and the ruling elite do not want to give Kenyans the clear picture.

It’s true you have GDP numbers, but you can’t eat GDP. At the end of the day, what’s needed is specific income, plus jobs – CBK Governor Dr Patrick Njoroge

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