|Desert Locust Spread In the current desert locust invasion areas of Eastern Africa, locust swarms have been reported in the last 6 weeks in northwestern Kenya, southern, northern and northeastern Ethiopia, northwest and northeastern Somalia. Adult locusts are also in large numbers in the areas where hoppers and bands were spotted in June which is in the trajectories of migrating swarms. There is large number of swarms despite the ongoing control efforts. Parts of Sudan continue to have adult locusts reported in Northern, River Nile and Red Sea states.|
Forecasted climatic and ecological conditionsClimatic
conditions suitable for desert locust development are forecasted to be highly suitable in eastern Uganda, southern to eastern Sudan, northern Ethiopia, northeastern Somalia and northwestern Kenya.
Ecological conditions (particularly the availability of green vegetation) are most suitable in the northern subregion due the current higher than usual rainfall received in the season which increased vegetation regrowth.
This is a likely driver as to why the locust invasion is currently in high intensity in Afar, Debubawi, Dire Dawa (Ethiopia) and Hargeisa (Somalia).
Wind direction and speeds, which greatly determine swarm movement is forecasted to be southerly and southwesterly in most parts of the region.
Ethiopia has varying winds movement in the north which is likely to affect swarm locust movement to both eastwards in Dire Dawa and westwards in Afar.
There is low risk for invasion for the southern and equatorial parts of the subregion and increased risk in northern countries of the region following the wind movement.Adult desert locust and swarms have been reported in Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot and Marsabit in Kenya.
In Ethiopia in Debub Omo, Bale, Dire Dawa, Hareri, Misraq Harrge, Fafan, Siti, Debub Wollo, Debubawi, north Oromia and Afar (Zones 1-5). In Somalia adult locust and swarms have been reported in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Galguuduud, Mudug, Bari and Sanaag.Desert locusts are projected to move from: Samburu areas of Kenya to Turkana and MarsabitTurkana areas and West Pokot areas of Kenya to Eastern Uganda areas of Moroto, Kotido, Pader and KigumEastern Equatorial areas of South Sudan to Jongoli and Upper Nile statesSouth Ethiopia areas of Omo to Bench Maji, Agruak and MajangEthiopia Afar and Debubawi regions to Misraqawi, Mehak Elegnaw, Semien Mirabaw and Wag Himra.North-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia and across the Red Sea to areas in Yemen.Intermittent multi-directional winds may favour swarms to move in varying directions during the projection period.
|Highest risk areas|
|Highest risk areas for Desert Locust swarms and adult locust invasion based on forecasted climate conditions and existing vegetation conditions suitable for an invasion are outlined below:|
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